Los Olivos, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS66 KLOX 150527
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1027 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/747 PM.

A deep marine layer with strong onshore flow will continue a
cooling trend through the work week. Night through morning low
clouds and fog are expected with drizzle possible each night and
morning. A cold upper level low is forecast to bring showers to
the area Thursday night through Friday night. A thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out, especially in the mountains and deserts on
Friday. Dry and milder conditions with a warming trend are then
expected for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...14/803 PM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast update this evening is focused on marine layer cloud
coverage over the area tonight through Tuesday night. With a
deepening marine layer and strong onshore flow, expect low clouds
to move further inland each night to morning period. It is also
likely that drizzle will occur in many locations during the
overnight hours, especially where the low clouds are pushing over
the foothills and coastal slopes. For tonight, expect low clouds
to move inland over the coastal valleys, with a 30-40% chance
that they push further inland (to the Santa Clarita Valley).
Further north, expect the Salinas Valley to see plenty of low
clouds, with a 20% chance the clouds move further inland to the
eastern side of San Luis Obispo. Partial clearing is expected on
Tuesday, but some coastal areas will retain at least patchy low
clouds through the day.

A cooling trend is expected into midweek due to the expanding
overnight low cloud cover, onshore flow, and delayed clearing each
day. Tuesday`s highs are expected to be in the 60s most areas
except for lower to mid 70s in the Antelope Valley. Low clouds
Tuesday night will likely move even further inland to the interior
valleys, including much of interior San Luis and Santa Barbara
Counties.

***From Previous Discussion***

A slow moving closed low pressure system will remain offshore
through roughly Wednesday, before likely pushing ashore while
merging into a much deeper trough into Thursday. This is a low
predictability weather pattern, although the resultant weather
probably will not change much even if the weather pattern evolves
differently than anticipated.

High confidence in continued marine layer pattern with increased
inland penetration each day through at least Wednesday. Night to
morning drizzle is possible at times within the expanding marine
layer cloud deck. There is a 5 percent chance of an elevated
thunderstorm focused across the interior Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Dry lightning or gusty winds would likely be the main
threat should a thunderstorm develop. Slow to no clearing is
likely each day, especially for south facing coasts and foothills.
A cooling trend will continue through at least Thursday with
widespread highs only in the 60s by Wednesday. Local advisory
level winds will be possible for interior areas especially into
Wednesday afternoon and evening for the Antelope Valley foothills
thanks to the deep marine layer and strong onshore gradients.

Theres a 20 percent chance that the trough will deepen fast
enough to bring increased shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity as early as Thursday, especially in the evening.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/245 PM.

Below normal confidence in the extended forecast period,
especially Friday as there is a 50-60 percent chance of deep
trough across the region supporting convective showers and
thunderstorms focused across the interior, but a few may enter
coastal areas, especially the coastal valleys of Los Angeles and
Ventura County thanks to northwesterly steering flow aloft.
Rainfall amounts in this scenario would mostly be under a quarter
of an inch with the greatest rainfall chances in the mountains to
interior valleys, although isolated amounts above a half of an
inch would be possible with any thunderstorms or training showers.
Gusty northwest to onshore winds would likely reach advisory
levels, especially across the high terrain into the interior
deserts. Snow levels initially above 8000 feet may dip to 6000 to
7000 feet and locally lower in heavier showers or in the overnight
period Thursday into Friday or Friday into Saturday with light
accumulations generally above 6000 or 7000 feet. Colder interior
valleys may see frosty morning lows Friday or Saturday morning
with lows potentially down into the mid to upper 30s with 40s
potentially becoming common in most areas away from the coast.
Quite chilly for late April!

High pressure building in behind the departing storm may support
advisory level northwest to onshore winds for prone areas this
weekend with rebounding temperatures. Marine layer clouds may be
slow to reform, possibly taking hold across many coastal areas by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0523Z.

At 0452Z near KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 1500 feet.
The top of the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 15
degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in minimum flight cats for KPRB, KBUR, and
KVNY. There is a 30% chance KPRB remains IFR to MVFR through the
period when cigs are present. There is a 30% chance for LIFR
conds at KBUR/KVNY at any point once cigs arrive. Arrival of cigs
at KBUR/KVNY may be as late as 13Z.

Moderate to high confidence in remaining TAFs. High confidence in
MVFR conds being minimum flight cat, with possible brief periods
of IFR cigs (especially at KSMO). Moderate confidence in timing
of cig arrivals for Ventura and Los Angeles County terminals (+/-
3 hours).

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 06Z TAF. Arrival of cigs
may be as late as 11Z, but high confidence in cigs OVC010-20 with
vsbys 3SM or higher. There is a 20% chance for brief period of
OVC008-OVC009 at times tonight and in the morning. No significant
east wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Arrival of cigs may be as
late as 13Z. 30% chance for OVC002-OVC004 and/or vsbys 1/2SM to
2SM at any point cigs are present.

&&

.MARINE...14/943 PM.

Overall, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through
Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) for all the coastal waters. There is
potential for SCA level winds south of Point Conception and again
Saturday. More widespread gusty winds are possible again starting Monday
(Apr 22).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Smith
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Phillips/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Hall/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox